(Reuters) – China’s exports grew at a slower pace in November than the previous month, while imports shrank, signalling concerns for the world’s No. 2 economy as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House introduces new trade risks.
Outbound shipments from China grew 6.7% year-year-on-year last month, customs data showed on Tuesday, missing an 8.5% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 12.7% rise in October.
KEY POINTS: * Soybean: November imports at 7.15 mmt, down 9% y/y
* Crude oil: November imports at 48.52 mmt, up 14.3% y/y
* Unwrought copper: Nov imports at 528,000 mt, down 4.1% y/y
* Coal: November imports at 54.98 mmt, up 26% y/y
* Iron ore: November imports at 101.86 mmt, down 0.86% y/y
* Rare earths: November imports at 11,327 mt, down 20.9% y/y
Preliminary table of commodity trade data
Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data.
COMMENTS ON IRON ORE
PEI HAO, ANALYST, FREIGHT INVESTOR SERVICES, SHANGHAI
The trend is in line with our expectations as miners’ pressure to lift shipments to achieve annual targets has eased after a wave of high shipments earlier in this year; ore demand did pick up last month but that was mainly reflected in the drawdown in portside inventory.
CHENG PENG, ANALYST, SINOSTEEL FUTURES, BEIJING
Despite a slight fall, ore imports last month still hovered at a relatively high level due to high shipments and a pick-up in demand since October.
COMMENT ON STEEL EXPORTS
JIANG MENGTIAN, ANALYST, CONSULTANCY HORIZON INSIGHTS
November steel exports remained high as rush shipments continued due to concerns over tariffs imposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. We expect total steel exports this year to surpass the record high set in 2015.
COMMENT ON SOYBEAN
WAN CHENGZHI, ANALYST AT CAPITAL JINGDU FUTURES
November imports fell short of our 7.5 million metric ton estimate due to a decrease in old Brazilian soybean imports. Most U.S. soybeans were shipped to China in October, with arrivals expected in December, leading to expectations of a significant jump in December’s import volume compared with November.
COMMENT ON COPPER
ZHAO YONGCHENG, PRINCIPAL ANALYST, BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE
Copper shipments from Africa increased, mainly from assets owned by Chinese companies such as CMOC Group. Copper consumption has been strong this year, supported by home appliance production data in China and policies encouraging the replacement of old appliances with new ones.
LINKS: For details, see the official Customs website (www.customs.gov.cn)
BACKGROUND:
China is the world’s biggest crude oil importer and top buyer of coal, copper, iron ore and soybeans.
