The U.S. dollar was modestly up Tuesday, staying close to its nearly two-week high as with investor attention turns to the forthcoming U.S. jobs report expected at the week’s end.
At 00:05 EST (04:05 GMT), the U.S. dollar index was trading 0.10% higher at 101.67. The EUR/USD was down 0.12% at 1.1058.
The report, set to be released on Friday, is anticipated to play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a shift from focusing on inflation to preventing job losses.
Currently, there is a 33% chance being ascribed to a 50 basis points cut this month, with a quarter-point reduction fully expected. This represents a slight shift from the previous week when the probability for a larger cut stood at 36%.
Markets have been anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 25 basis point reduction already factored into expectations for several weeks. The strength of the dollar earlier reflected this sentiment as it reached its highest level since August 20, propelled by an increase in long-term Treasury yields to their highest point since mid-August.
This rise in yields followed inflation data that suggested the Fed might opt for a smaller rate cut.
The U.S. economy’s resilience is further underscored by recent gross domestic product figures, which suggest that the Federal Reserve has the leeway to moderate its policy easing. Despite this, traders are still betting on the likelihood of a rate cut from the Fed.
The outcome of the upcoming jobs report will likely have a significant impact on the dollar’s trajectory in the near term.
“A stronger-than-expected payroll number and lower unemployment rate would likely provide markets with greater confidence that growth risks have subsided, paving the way for equity valuations to remain elevated and a potential catch-up in some other markets/stocks that have lagged,” Morgan Stanley economists said in a note.
