HAVANA (Reuters) – Cuban Economy Minister Joaquín Alonso Vázquez on Monday forecast the Caribbean island’s economy would grow only 1% in 2025 after a dismal year marked by one of the country’s worst energy crisis in decades.
The minister, speaking to a closed-door session of a parliament commission, did not provide an estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, though recent hints by officials suggest it may have contracted again after falling 1.9% in 2023.
The Communist-run country blames U.S. sanctions and a lingering hangover from the COVID-19 pandemic for a depression that has left large swaths of the population and economy facing daily power outages, double-digit inflation and shortages of basic goods, water and fuel.
Cuba initially forecast 2% growth this year after a decline of nearly 12% since 2019, but the crisis deepened month-by-month in 2024 as daily power outages across much of the country often span for 12 or more hours.
“This year was so serious … the power outages have created a critical situation where industry is paralyzed,” Cuban economist Omar Everleny said.
Everleny told Reuters he estimated the growth would plunge 4% this year, on top of last year’s dismal near 2 percent contraction.
Cuba’s economy minister said export earnings fell $900 million, 10% short of the government’s plans, while imports were 18% less than forecast. Agriculture, tourism, steel and sugar production all performed well short of expectations.
The National Statistics Office reported freight traffic, key indicator of economic activity, was down 18% through September, compared with a similar period last year.
